Sheboygan, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

508
FXUS63 KMKX 030816
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
316 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing showers will gradually dissipate this morning, with
  mostly dry conditions the rest of the day.

- Generally dry on Sunday. Onshore flow will keep temperatures
  colder near the lake.

- Increased rain chances Sunday night and Monday, then turning
  warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 316 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025

Today through Sunday:

Widespread light rain showers are ongoing this morning,
associated with a slow moving shortwave making its way through
the region. This activity is expected to continue through
sunrise, before gradually dissipating during the mid morning
hours as the shortwave progresses further east.

Once this morning`s showers dissipate, the remainder of the day
is expected to be cloudy and dry for most of the area. The
exception may be locations west of Madison, where a few showers
may pop up on the backside of the trough, within the entrance
region of a narrow jet aloft, and an area of slightly higher
mid level moisture. This activity, if it develops, should be
widely scattered and relatively short-lived. Temperatures today
will be in the 50s inland, with 40s near the lake due to cold
onshore flow.

At least partial clearing is expected tonight as high pressure
and drier mid level air builds into the area. Will need to watch
for some overnight fog given the recent rainfall, light winds,
and potentially clear skies.

The first half of the day on Sunday looks to be dry, as the
trough passing through the area this morning closes off and
becomes quasi-stationary over the Ohio Valley. By afternoon and
evening that low will begin to lift back to the northwest, with
increasing rain chances across southeastern Wisconsin.

A wide west to east gradient in temperatures is expected on
Sunday. Highs over south central Wisconsin, where clouds will
be later to arrive, should reach the low to mid 60s. More
widespread cloud cover and flow off the lake will keep readings
in the 50s farther to the east, with 40s very close to the lake.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 316 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025

Sunday Night through Saturday:

At this time, Sunday night through Monday night look to bring
the highest potential for precipitation (particularly in the
east) associated with the upper low as it pivots back to the
north, bringing shortwave energy and associated moisture back
into southern WI. The GEFS and EC Ens means generally bring in
50-90% chances in this period for PoPs. Models have slowed the
exit of this system over the past few model runs, keeping precip
chances lingering through Monday. This could slow even further
keeping shower chances in the eastern CWA through part of the
day Tuesday.

As this system pushes to the east Tuesday, drier conditions are
favored as we move into the ridging portion of the omega block.
The development of a western closed upper low will be the thing
to watch later next week as models are not in great agreement
with this feature. Generally models either have this weakening
significantly, and/or drop the low through the southern US. This
will favor continued ridging and mostly dry conditions for the
middle portion of next week.

Warm conditions are expected by midweek, with weak flow
overall. This weak flow should allow for the lake breeze to play
a factor in temperatures closer to the lake during this period.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 316 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025

Variable ceilings are occuring early this morning, with MVFR and
IFR in and around areas of light rain showers. As these showers
dissipate later this morning, flight conditions should improve
to VFR for much of the day. Winds will be from the northeast,
with a few gusts possible off of Lake Michigan for Milwaukee and
Kenosha. By tonight, at least partial clearing is expected,
with winds becoming light and variable. Some patchy fog is
possible overnight, especially where skies completely clear and
winds are most light. This currently appears most favorable at
Madison and Sheboygan.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 316 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025

High pressure will expand across the western Great Lakes today,
strengthening slightly. This high will sit over the western
Great Lakes region into early next week. Low pressure centered
over Ohio and West Virginia will wobble back westward at times
through Monday, maintaining northeasterly to northerly winds
across Lake Michigan, with occasional gustiness across the
southern half through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect today for elevated waves south of Milwaukee.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Saturday to 7 PM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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