Sheboygan, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

469
FXUS63 KMKX 070858
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
358 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small shower and storm chances (10-15%) return this afternoon
  and evening.

- Better chances (60-80%) for rain and storms with the passage
  of a cold front for storms Sunday into Monday. Some storms may
  be strong Sunday and Monday.

- Temperatures will remain within a few degrees of normal
  through early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 358 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Today through Sunday night:

Zonal flow remains at 500mb across the central and eastern
CONUS. Under this zonal flow there are multiple shortwaves and
little wiggles moving through, which will again create
sporadic/nebulous upper level lift today. There is one
shortwave trough in particular thats a bit more organized and
stronger than the rest that should pass just to the south of the
state line this afternoon/evening. With sfc high pressure off
to the northeast, dry air at the surface will remain through
much of the morning keeping conditions dry. Any radar returns
are likely to be virga with the stronger showers maybe
producing some drizzle across mainly central and west central
Wisconsin (where there is more low and mid level moisture). As
the surface high pressure begins to move east into the New
England states later today, there will be a slight increase in
moisture especially for areas along the WI/IL border. Increased
moisture and upper level lift has lead to some low chance POPs
around 20% this afternoon and evening. Any rain that makes it to
the ground is likely (80%) to be drizzle/light rain. The best
chance for any rainfall is likely to remain to our south where
the better upper level support (shortwave) will reside.

As the high pressure moves out, low pressure in Manitoba will
deepen and begin to occlude. As this low pressure system slowly
moves eastward, an associated cold front is expected to move
through the Great Lakes Region. There are still little
differences in timing as this cold front phases with/interacts
with the same shortwave that is expected to bring light rain
today. By and large tho, rain is expected (60 to 80% chance) to
move in from the west Sunday afternoon and exit to the east
Sunday evening.

Given the slight differences due to the two phases systems, an
upper level trough and associated sfc cold front with a
shortwave trough to the south of the state. There are two
potential scenarios which will impact the strength and coverage
of any thunderstorms. The earlier and quicker the front moves
through the weaker the CAPE is and we maybe get an isolated
stronger storm. The slower and therefore later the cold front
moves through the better primed the environment will become and
the greater the CAPE will be. This could lead to a few more
marginally severe storms.

With the current set up the models with the slower cold front
movement are the ones that do not have the upper level trough
and shortwave phasing. This difference is on the order of a
couple hours and because of that opted for a middle ground for
POPs since not matter what there is high confidence for rain and
thunderstorms. The main concerns for any stronger storms will be
some brief gusty winds and hail.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 358 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Monday through Friday:

The main upper low is anticipated to swing through the area on
Monday, bringing another round of showers and storms to southern
Wisconsin. Though it will be a bit drier overall on Monday than
Sunday, colder temps aloft and steeper mid-level lapse rates will
lead to some moderate instability. There should be plenty of
forcing with this wave as well, so higher end precip chances
(50-80%) still look warranted. This is supported by 90%+
probabilities for 24 hour measurable precip in the latest ECMWF
and GFS ensembles. Could see a stronger storm or two, with gusty
winds and small hail possible. Temps will likely be a few degrees
below normal Monday given the cooler airmass and expected
clouds/precip.

Mainly dry weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday as high
pressure builds into the area. Not out of the question for
isolated showers and maybe a storm on Tuesday as a weak waves
pushes through, but most places will likely be dry. Temperatures
will recover into mid-week as upper level ridging builds in from
the west, with highs up to around 80 by Wednesday.

Could see a few showers/storms Thursday over the top of the ridge,
but confidence in this activity is on the lower end at this
point. Shower and storm chances will then increase late week as
shortwave lifts through the area. Warm temps and increasing
moisture are expected through the end of the week as well.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 358 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mid to upper
level clouds across south central Wisconsin early this morning
will rise leading to only high level clouds come day break.
High level clouds will continue to stream into southern
Wisconsin throughout the day with broken to scattered clouds
expected into tonight. There is a chance for a brief period of
clear skies across southern Wisconsin overnight tonight. Mid to
low level clouds expected to move in along and ahead of an
approaching cold front Sunday late afternoon/evening. For today
there is a small chance (15%) for some light rain and virga. The
best chances will be across western and far southern Wisconsin.

Light and variable winds early this morning will become
southeasterly by this afternoon. Southeast winds may briefly
take on a more easterly component along the Lake Michigan
lakeshore tonight. Heading into Sunday morning winds will shift
to southwesterly and increase ahead of the approaching cold
front.


Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 358 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

High pressure over Lake Superior this morning will move east out
of the Great Lakes Region this weekend. As this high moves east,
an area of low pressure will approach the state from the
Northern Plains. Light and variable winds are expected until the
high pressure has moved into the New England States. Winds will
shift to southwesterly Sunday morning and increase, leading to
some moderately breezy winds. Winds will stay well below Gale
Force. Showers and storms are expected Sunday and Monday.
Southwest winds will remain through mid to late Monday then
become westerly.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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